Revised Economic Growth: New Record in Tourist Arrivals
On Tuesday, in Parliament, the Prime Minister presented an assessment of the national economic situation and growth prospects for the next two years. Citing data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Statistics Mauritius, he noted that "Mauritius's real GDP is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2025," primarily driven by the financial services and tourism sectors.
In response to MP Ram Etwareea (MMM), Navin Ramgoolam reminded that in April 2025, the IMF had forecasted a growth of 3% for 2025 and 2026. After Article IV consultations, the institution confirmed 3% for 2025 and revised 2026 upward to 3.4%, indicating renewed confidence in macroeconomic stability. Statistics Mauritius also anticipates a slight increase, with 1,425,000 tourist arrivals expected this year, higher than pre-pandemic levels.
The government aims to break away from the "inherited, consumption-based model" to adopt a new economic model centered on investment, productivity, and exports, necessitating a gradual restructuring of the economy.
Among the growth drivers for the medium term, Navin Ramgoolam mentioned diversification around four pillars: renewable energy, waste valorization, blue economy, and creative industries. The incentive schemes announced in the Budget Speech are expected to stimulate investment. A Rs 30 billion energy plan over three years is in preparation, and the role of the Economic Development Board will be refocused on promoting productive investments and exports across all sectors.
Internationally, the Prime Minister highlighted the opportunities presented by existing trade agreements: African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), a comprehensive economic cooperation agreement with India, and a free trade agreement with China. India’s support, through a $680 million Special Economic Package, will facilitate priority projects in strategic sectors such as port development, road infrastructure, health, and energy. He also praised the renewal of AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act), which secures exports to the United States.
Regarding price stability, the Bank of Mauritius forecasts inflation at around 4% in 2025. Statistics Mauritius notes a slight decline in indices in August and September. To contain inflationary pressures, the government has:
- Raised the key interest rate to 4.5%;
- Increased currency supply;
- Removed VAT on certain essential goods;
- Created a Rs 10 billion Price Stabilization Fund, already subsidizing five products and preparing a second series.
Navin Ramgoolam concluded: "We are closely monitoring the situation, both nationally and internationally. We will take appropriate measures to achieve our goal of a real GDP growth rate of 4 to 5% by the end of our term, while maintaining inflation within the target range set by the Bank of Mauritius."
