The Nobel Peace Prize Awarded in Trump's Shadow

The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded in Oslo, following the announcement of a ceasefire agreement on Gaza between Israel and Hamas, which likely came too late for Donald Trump to have a chance at winning it.

Sought after by the American president, the prize will be announced at 11:00 AM (09:00 GMT), just hours after the agreement on a ceasefire and the release of hostages, a significant step towards ending two years of war in the Gaza Strip.

This development, resulting from Trump's strong pressures on the warring parties, is probably too late for the Norwegian Nobel Committee, which awards the prize, to take into account.

The committee's five members held their last meeting on Monday, which typically serves to finalize the rationale behind their choice, a decision made several days prior.

As far as it holds, the agreement on Gaza "has absolutely no consequence" on the choice of the 2025 laureate because "the Nobel Committee has already made its decision," assured historian Asle Sveen, a Nobel expert. "Trump will not win the prize this year. I am 100% sure."

The American president has long "given free rein" to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to bombard Gaza and has provided significant military aid to the Israeli army, the historian noted.

Since his return to the White House, the Republican billionaire has insisted he "deserves" the Nobel, claiming a role in resolving multiple conflicts, a record that experts find highly exaggerated.

"I really don't know what the Nobel Committee will do. But I know one thing: no one in history has ever resolved eight wars in nine months," the American leader said Thursday in response to a question from AFP.

"And I ended eight wars. That has never happened before," he stated, emphasizing that the Gaza conflict was "the most important of all."

However, in Oslo, no experts believe it.

Beyond the timing issues, many point to his mantra "America First" as contrary to the ideals (international cooperation, brotherhood among peoples, and disarmament) contained in Alfred Nobel's will (1833-1896).

With no clear favorite, the question remains as to who among the 338 individuals and organizations in the running this year - a list kept secret - will win the Nobel?

In the absence of a frontrunner, several names are circulating: the Sudanese volunteer network Emergency Response Cells (ERR), Russian Ioulia Navalnaïa, widow of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, or the OSCE's election observation body (BIDDH).

The Nobel Committee might also choose to reaffirm its commitment to a world order disrupted by Donald Trump by rewarding UN chief Antonio Guterres or a UN agency like the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) or the agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA).

It could also honor international justice - International Court of Justice (ICJ) or International Criminal Court (ICC) - or press freedom threatened by highlighting NGOs such as the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) or Reporters Without Borders (RSF).

One certainty remains: "there will be a laureate," said Erik Aasheim, spokesman for the Nobel Institute, putting an end to speculations from some experts who believe the committee, in light of the geopolitical situation, might skip this year.

In 2024, the Peace Prize went to Nihon Hidankyo, a group of survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, campaigning against nuclear weapons.

The Nobel consists of a diploma, a gold medal, and a check for eleven million Swedish kronor (approximately one million euros).

Following the prizes for medicine, physics, chemistry, literature, and peace awarded this week, the Nobel season will conclude on Monday in Stockholm with the awarding of the economics prize.