Jean Claude de l’Estrac: "In the Face of Institutional Decline, Everything Becomes a Priority and Time Passes Quickly"

Jean Claude de l’Estrac, a journalist, historian, and former Secretary General of the Indian Ocean Commission, discusses the crisis in Madagascar and draws parallels with Mauritius. A year after the Change alliance came to power, he notes that a counter-power seems to have already established itself within the government.

How do you analyze the current situation in Madagascar, marked by popular protest and youth uprising? Do you think a return to serenity and stability is now possible?
The situation is very complex on several levels: political and constitutional; social and economic; and perhaps even ethnic. Politically, the key issue at this point is whether the recent unrest has resulted in a military coup, or, as claimed by Colonel Randrianirina, the new strongman, a transfer of power sanctioned by the Constitutional High Court due to a vacancy at the top of the state following the departure of the head of state. This version is strongly contested by Andry Rajoelina, who is bolstered by the African Union's condemnation of a "military coup."

Regardless, the social and economic situation is likely to further deteriorate. The Malagasy government relies heavily on foreign aid for its current expenses. If a suspension of this aid were decided by its partners, a major economic crisis and an increase in poverty in one of the world's poorest countries would be expected. These are not conditions conducive to promoting "serenity and stability," especially since some Malagasy circles give an ethnic connotation to these events. Those who have taken power do not come from the same background as those who previously led the country.

Will this "Gen Z rebellion" in Madagascar lead to deep changes on the island?
I don’t believe so. In any case, what is unfolding is what we have already experienced: a transitional government dominated by the military with the promise of elections in the near or distant future. What Madagascar needs goes beyond a mere change of personnel. The system is deeply flawed for two main reasons: on one hand, an overly centralized administration around a President who holds all powers in the absence of checks and balances; and, as everyone knows, absolute power corrupts absolutely. Two reforms seem essential: decentralization of the administration close to federalism; and the establishment of a parliamentary system with the election of a Prime Minister by parliament, rather than by the President’s grace.

Do you think a similar movement could emerge in Mauritius, where part of the youth is also expressing disillusionment?
There are indeed frustrations among our youth, but their demands are not comparable to those of Malagasy youth. The latter were on the streets ready to destroy because they have nothing to lose. This is not the case for our youth, who are somewhat spoiled by the welfare state and relatively protected. Our youth are asking for a "better" future. The Malagasy are seeking a future.

What lessons could Mauritius draw from the Malagasy political and social crisis?
We are living on two different planets. I do not see what lesson Mauritius should draw from the Malagasy crisis. Perhaps the people’s aversion to corruption. However, I see what the Malagasy state could learn from Mauritius, a small country that, at the time of its independence, was one of the poorest in the world, while Madagascar was the economic center and cultural hub of the Indian Ocean region.

As we approach the first anniversary of this government, what overall assessment do you make?
Do you want the glass to be half full or half empty? I could easily fill the columns of your paper in either case. But I find the exercise pointless. What matters is ensuring that counter-powers – unlike in Madagascar, which exist here and are vigorous – fully exercise their role whenever necessary. It is quite useful that within the government itself, a counter-power, loud, please, seems to have settled quite well...

Are economic matters being managed well?
You insist! Economic reforms and their concrete results take a long time. It is too early to comment. That said, political courage is required to undertake them, especially when they do not boil down to buying political peace by distributing borrowed money that our children will have to repay. In this regard, the government's decision to reform our pension system, a demand continuously pushed back by all governments for the past 25 years, should be praised. After that, we can regret the way it was done. But let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Is the gap between leaders and citizens continuing to widen?
Yes, it’s a global phenomenon. We are in a political end-cycle marked by the absence of great leaders who knew how to lead their troops. But perhaps the troops are not what they used to be. Politicians will tell you: there was a time when a voter would ask a politician what he intended to do for the country; today, he wants to know what the politician will do for him...

What institutional or political reforms should, in your opinion, be prioritized?
In the face of the decline and degradation of institutions, everything becomes a priority and time passes quickly. However, the main reform, the one most likely to elevate time to another level, is the establishment of meritocracy in all strata of public life: in politics first, in public administration, and in the private sector. It is not forbidden to dream.