Oil, Arms, and Diplomacy: Putin in India for a Bilateral Visit

Vladimir Putin arrived in India on Thursday for a highly anticipated visit amidst customs sanctions imposed on New Delhi by Donald Trump in retaliation for its purchases of Russian oil.

The Russian president, who had not visited New Delhi since 2021, was welcomed at the airport by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with whom he was set to have a private dinner in the evening, ahead of their official talks on Friday.

In an interview with India Today before his departure, Mr. Putin expressed his "great happiness" to see his "friend" Mr. Modi, highlighting the "broad cooperation" between their two countries.

Here are the main topics on the agenda for their discussions:

Oil

India is one of the largest importers of Russian oil, in contrast to Western countries that have halted their crude purchases due to the war in Ukraine.

In 2024, Russia supplied 36% of Indian refineries' consumption, according to commercial information platform Kpler.

India, which imports 85% of its crude oil needs, has found a way to fill its tanks at good prices. However, the United States punished it in August with a 50% tariff on its exports, claiming that these purchases fund Moscow's war efforts in Ukraine.

Donald Trump claimed that Narendra Modi had promised him to abandon Russian oil during trade negotiations between their two countries.

New Delhi has not confirmed this. However, recent statistics reveal that its purchases from Moscow have declined.

"We have no doubt that these exchanges greatly benefit India and are advantageous for both parties," noted Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov before the Russian president's visit.

"There may be a reduction in Indian energy purchases under American pressure, but the link will be maintained as both countries strategically need each other," assessed Nandan Unnikrishnan from the Observer Research Foundation, which is close to the Indian government, for AFP.

Defense

While India has recently turned to other suppliers - including France - and favors domestic equipment, Russia remains one of its main sources for military supplies.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the share of Russian equipment in India's arsenal has decreased from 76% during 2009-2013 to 36% in 2019-2023.

Learning from its military confrontation with Pakistan in May, New Delhi has expressed interest in purchasing new Russian S-400 surface-to-air missiles.

"There is no doubt that this topic will be raised during the visit," Mr. Peskov indicated.

Indian media also highlighted New Delhi's interest in the Russian fifth-generation fighter jet Su-57.

Trade

Russia ranks fourth among India's trading partners, with bilateral exchanges amounting to a record $68.7 billion in 2024-25, according to official statistics.

However, the relationship remains heavily imbalanced. Over 90% of this amount - $63.8 billion - comes from Indian imports, mainly hydrocarbons.

In return, India primarily sells machinery and pharmaceuticals to Russia.

"We want to diversify our exchanges and ensure they are more balanced," said a senior Indian diplomat speaking anonymously.

"Our intention is to maintain and even increase the volume of our bilateral exchanges," Dmitri Peskov assured, "without letting anyone else interfere."

Diplomacy

The senior Indian diplomat described his country’s relationship with Russia as "the most stable in modern times."

To date, India has avoided openly condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine while successfully maintaining its ties with Europe and the United States.

Narendra Modi has rarely raised his voice against Vladimir Putin on this issue, except in 2022 during a meeting in Uzbekistan when he called for an end to the war "as soon as possible."

Since then, he has repeatedly emphasized his commitment to a "multipolar" world order, resisting Western calls to distance himself from Moscow.

"We are united by our shared vision of a multipolar global future," Mr. Peskov added.