Economically, 2026 Will Be a Year...
2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for the Mauritian economy. With inflationary pressures, slowing growth, and persistent structural challenges, the path ahead looks tough. However, there are avenues for recovery. Economists share their insights and provide recommendations to reinvigorate the economy, restore confidence, and prepare for more sustainable growth.
Georges Chung states, "Economically, our country is undeniably at a standstill, caught between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, any deterioration in our debt situation in 2026 could categorize us as a financial risk by Moody’s, leading to severe consequences for Mauritius as a foreign investment destination. On the other hand, the urgent need to restore purchasing power, heavily impacted by the weakness of the rupee, is becoming increasingly pressing. Major controversies surrounding the increase of the retirement age, low wage compensation, and debates about the PRB are the most evident symptoms. Fully conceding to these demands in the current context could plunge us into disaster even more quickly. Yet, our contemporary economic history is filled with examples of how to escape underdevelopment and the misery of purchasing power.
To boost the economy, Chung recommends strengthening the rupee, emphasizing that there are no easy solutions to break the vicious cycle of our economic weakness. The first step is to restore purchasing power by reinforcing the rupee to below Rs 40 against the dollar, as it has stagnated around Rs 46 for three to four years. This requires creating all necessary conditions to invigorate all export sectors of goods and services, thus quickly bringing in the foreign currency crucial for revitalizing our currency.
He also urges the need to accelerate current technological progress, especially in artificial intelligence, which he believes will stimulate growth and open up new economic prospects. He highlights that our maritime zone, vastly larger than our land territory, generates very little revenue, with fish, particularly tuna, being the only significant exception.
Dr. Chandan Jankee forecasts a very challenging year in 2026, citing clear signs of a shift towards recession as early as 2025: growth is slowing, the pillars of the economy are weakening, and investment is declining. Structural weaknesses like labor shortages, lack of economic diversification, pressure on the exchange rate, and balance of payments imbalances persist. He stresses the need to restore investor confidence through a well-defined, transparent economic and social strategy that leads to sustainable long-term development.
Jankee also recommends a Marshall Plan approach, urging the government to revisit all traditional sectors while integrating new future sectors like energy and the blue economy. He suggests collaborating with the IMF and World Bank to develop an economic adjustment program that combines financial assistance, expertise, and economic discipline.
Gérald Lincoln emphasizes the need to accelerate the country’s opening to attract investments, particularly in real estate, and to acquire talent, which is currently a limiting factor across most sectors. Restoring confidence in the economy requires creating a favorable climate where businesses and investors feel secure. He argues that the country must eliminate excuses that hinder progress, such as workforce shortages and excessive costs.
Manisha Dookhony stresses that 2026 will be a crucial test for our economic model, highlighting our assets: political stability, quality infrastructure, and a geostrategic position. However, she questions our ability to meet deep-rooted challenges like economic diversification and ensuring growth benefits all citizens. She advocates for protecting the most vulnerable through subsidies for essential goods, investing in sustainable energy, and focusing on innovation as a new pillar of export. Dookhony suggests that to lower living costs, strong fiscal incentives should be introduced for supermarkets to source locally and for importers to voluntarily reduce margins on essential products.
Ishvind Caleechurn warns that 2026 will necessitate a forced transformation under structural tension, with fiscal management and public debt being central issues. He highlights the need for Mauritius to either maintain its upper middle-income status or realize its ambition to join the high-income economies.
Sudesh Lallchand expresses concern that 2026 may struggle to take off due to a lack of significant actions in 2025 to stimulate economic development. He calls for a dedicated finance minister focused on economic growth and new ideas to emerge from ministers themselves to avoid over-reliance on consumer debt and taxes. Lallchand notes that political stability remains a key factor in fostering economic growth, though recent signs are not encouraging.