Consumption: Focusing on Essentials for Households

Consumption in Mauritius in 2026 is expected to follow a moderate pace, characterized by household caution. This is anticipated by representatives of consumer associations and large retailers. Mauritians will focus their budgets on food, housing, and essential services.

Following a year-end 2025 marked by increased spending related to festivities, the consumption of Mauritian households is expected to slow down at the beginning of 2026, particularly among the middle class and lower-income families. This is the analysis of Jayen Chellum, the secretary-general of the Consumers Association of Mauritius (ACIM), who anticipates a relatively calm shopping month in January. "Mauritians will consume reasonably at the start of the year and during the following two months," he explains. According to him, this restraint is due both to the financial effort made during the holidays and the nature of January, often perceived as "the longest month of the year" for households.

This observation is shared by Suttyhudeo Tengur, president of the Association for the Protection of the Environment and Consumers (APEC). He believes that 2026 will be marked by a rationalization of expenses, resulting from the erosion of purchasing power. "Households prioritize essential spending over discretionary consumption," he emphasizes. The increase in unavoidable costs, such as food, transportation, housing, and services, absorbs a growing share of income. In addition, he notes that household debt and an atmosphere of economic uncertainty encourage more selective consumption, oriented towards necessity rather than comfort.

This caution is also felt at the level of large retailers. Vicky Hanoomanjee, CEO of SaveMax, confirms that significant increases in consumption are unlikely this year. "Households are taking a more cautious approach, favoring stabilization, or even rationalization of their expenses," he explains. According to him, this restraint is due to several factors: the cumulative rise in the cost of living in recent years, the burden of mortgage debts, and economic uncertainties, both regional and international. "Additionally, there is a heightened sensitivity to prices, which strongly influences purchasing decisions," he continues.

However, this trend could gradually reverse starting in February, driven by a busy festive calendar and special events. "There will be plenty of celebrations starting in February, and with these events, consumption will pick up," estimates Jayen Chellum. After a period of restraint, domestic demand is expected to increase over the months.

The recovery may also be supported by favorable elements regarding purchasing power. "The recently announced salary compensation of Rs 635 should enable consumers to better absorb the rising cost of living and maintain a certain level of spending," he adds.

For his part, Vicky Hanoomanjee insists that caution does not equate to a collapse in consumption. "Essential expenses, such as food, health, education, and energy, remain priorities, while expensive leisure activities or non-essential premium products face stricter budgetary scrutiny. We are also witnessing the rise of the rational consumer, more attentive to promotions, store brands, and the quality-price ratio," he points out.

Inflation: Expected Stability, Recommended Vigilance

On the inflation front, the secretary-general of ACIM is relatively optimistic. He does not foresee any product shortages in 2026 and even anticipates a decrease in logistical costs, which could lighten the burden for consumers. "Inflation should stabilize between 3.6% and 3.8%," he suggests. However, he warns against certain behaviors that could maintain pressure on prices. "The profit levels of some traders can influence inflation: some inflate costs, contributing to price increases," he warns. Furthermore, he states that external risk factors, such as geopolitical tensions or the effects of climate change, could disrupt supply chains and impact production, both regionally and internationally.

For Suttyhudeo Tengur, more moderate consumption can exert a partial disinflationary effect by reducing pressure on domestic demand. "However, in Mauritius, inflation is largely imported, depending on international prices, freight, and exchange rates. Even with weaker local demand, increases in external costs are passed on to prices," he explains. He also reminds that certain expenditures, like food or energy, are not easily reducible. "A decrease in consumption may slow down inflation, but it is not sufficient to contain it sustainably. For 2026, the inflation rate could be between 3.5% and 4%. Internal pressures, particularly production costs and wage adjustments, also contribute to maintaining moderate but persistent inflation. However, household perceptions may remain higher than the official rate," he warns.

Meanwhile, Vicky Hanoomanjee believes that an inflation rate between 4% and 5% seems like a realistic estimate. "This level, lower than recent peaks, would still be above historical averages, reflecting a gradual stabilization phase of the economy," he explains.

Products and Services: How Will Prices Evolve?

According to Jayen Chellum, some products are expected to see price changes at the beginning of the year. "Vegetables may experience a temporary increase due to heavy rains and bad weather affecting harvests. Conversely, pharmaceutical products might benefit from a slight decrease," he states. He mentions that services in private clinics have recently increased and hopes that no further increases will occur in 2026.

On his part, Vicky Hanoomanjee predicts that imported food products, such as rice, oils, dairy products, and cereals, will be more expensive this year. Suttyhudeo Tengur shares this view, specifying that the most significant increases will affect imported food products, as well as fuel, transportation, and housing, including rents, maintenance, and materials. "Certain private services, particularly health, education, and insurance, may also increase faster than the average," he adds.