Anil Gayan: "Everything Will Depend on What Donald Trump Wants to Do"

According to Anil Gayan, a former minister and keen observer of international affairs, the progress of the Chagos issue now largely hinges on a central factor: Donald Trump's political will. "My reading of the situation suggests that a pretext is being sought for unraveling the treaty," he claims, believing that the American stance is now unequivocal. Washington, in his view, is not willing to make compromises when it comes to strategic security.

"Donald Trump makes it clear that his country is unmatched in power," says Anil Gayan, urging observers to note how the United States treats its European allies. "Some countries have no choice but to submit, otherwise they risk losing American support on security matters," he adds. This logic of constraint, he believes, explains why the Chagos issue is currently being manipulated within a broader geopolitical context, where legal principles take a back seat.

Gayan also believes that the Mauritian government has underestimated the complexity and harshness of the international context. "The government thought everything would be easy after signing, but that’s not the case," he states, while pointing out the lack of a clear public stance from the Prime Minister on such a significant issue. With the bill now stalled, he calls for patience, expressing pessimism about the outcome. "Now that the bill has been frozen, we must be patient," he concludes, describing the situation as concerning and emphasizing that future developments will largely depend on the strategic choices of Washington and London.

At this stage, one thing is clear: the Chagos issue has entered a critical phase. Between legal recognition, security pressures, and international alliance dynamics, the future of the treaty now relies less on principles and more on the shifting balance of power among major nations.