Conflict in the Middle East - Oil at $106 per barrel: Mauritius monitors the arrival of its next fuel shipment

As global oil markets experience their largest surge in months, an oil tanker that departed Fujairah on March 9 is en route to Mauritius. While fuel prices at the pump are currently stable, the next revision will depend on the actual cost of the shipment upon arrival.

On the night of March 8-9, tensions in the Middle East triggered a sharp spike in oil prices. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on certain oil infrastructures pushed prices close to $120 per barrel before a partial stabilization. As of 9:55 AM this Sunday morning, Brent crude was trading at $106.58, an approximate increase of 15% in just one day. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by 13.2%, reaching $102.92.

In this context of high volatility, the tanker NP Sea Adventure left Fujairah's port on March 9 carrying a fuel shipment destined for Mauritius. Its arrival is closely monitored by Mauritian authorities and could dictate the next decision on pump prices.

On March 2, the Petroleum Pricing Committee (PPC) decided to leave fuel prices unchanged. The price of petrol remains fixed at Rs 58.45 per litre, while diesel is set at Rs 58.95. This decision to maintain the status quo must not be interpreted as a reassuring signal, cautioned Minister of Commerce Michaël Sik Yuen. "We are not saying there is no risk of a price increase. Forecasts for the coming days will change. The exchange rate factor is also at play," he warned. The Ministry of Commerce indicates that it is monitoring international price movements daily. A new PPC meeting could be convened after the NP Sea Adventure's shipment arrives, once actual import data is available.

In Mauritius, when determining fuel prices, it is less about the crude oil price and more about the CIF (cost, insurance, and freight) price of the imported shipment. Suttyhudeo Tengur, president of the Association for the Protection of the Environment and Consumers and a board member of the State Trading Corporation (STC), is explicit on this point: "Considering the upcoming shipment to Mauritius, it is the freight that will primarily influence the price." The STC continuously monitors the positions of vessels according to a precise supply schedule. However, Suttyhudeo Tengur calls for caution in public discussions, believing it is preferable to avoid spreading information that could cause concern among the population.

In light of market instability, Mauritius is simultaneously exploring several avenues to secure and diversify its supplies. Discussions are underway with Reliance Industries Limited, an Indian energy group with a branch based in London. Negotiations could also open with Mocoh South Africa, a company based in Geneva, seen as an alternative solution.

On a more structural level, the Indian option is making diplomatic progress. Following the Raisina Dialogue 2026 held in New Delhi from March 5-7, Foreign Minister Ritesh Ramful indicated that a supply contract with Indian Oil Corporation could soon be presented to the Mauritian government. This is a strong signal, as India itself may come under pressure due to its dependence on imports from the Middle East.

Some economists also mention the refinery owned by Nigerian businessman Aliko Dangote, which has issued a tender for its petroleum products since 2025. This African option would allow Mauritius to reduce its reliance on maritime routes from the Gulf.

Beyond supply strategies, an economist noted a lesson often forgotten: during the Covid-19 pandemic, global demand for oil fell not due to a technological revolution, but through a simple change in behavior — reduced travel, the rise of remote work, and the generalization of virtual meetings. Some of these practices continue today. "Sometimes, the fastest energy transition is not technological. It is behavioral," he summarized.

Planned shipments include:

• Wild oil tanker: March 4-6 aboard the NP Elandra Willow at Sohar port, Oman.
• Tanker (fuel oil): March 7-9 aboard the NP Sea Adventure at Fujairah.

Expected arrivals:

• NP Elandra Willow: around March 17.
• NP Sea Adventure: March 14.
• Clipper Posh carrying 9,000 metric tons of gas: March 12.