El Niño 2026: Its Influence on Mauritius Remains Uncertain

According to updates published between March and May 2026 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NOAA, El Niño conditions may develop during the second half of 2026. However, these organizations clarify that it is still impossible to definitively determine the consequences for Mauritius.

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has not issued any alerts related to El Niño. During the presentation of the "Winter Outlook 2026" on May 21, the MMS indicated that the southern winter is expected to be warmer than usual, with overall precipitation close to seasonal averages.

Official documents do not confirm any imminent drought, water crisis, or major climate disruption related to El Niño. Authorities are simply maintaining close monitoring of the evolving climatic conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In summary, El Niño could emerge in 2026, but its potential influence on Mauritius remains uncertain. Upcoming bulletins from the MMS will be crucial in assessing the real risks for the country.