A Tumultuous Week Ahead
A tumultuous week lies ahead. The calm was short-lived, lasting barely 48 hours. Just two days separated the reassuring handshake on Thursday, the jovial cabinet meeting on Friday, and the harsh return of doubt on Saturday morning. The calm displayed at the highest levels of government was not a solid peace; it was merely a suspension, a breath. On Saturday, during the MMM's central committee meeting, Paul Bérenger reminded everyone: nothing is guaranteed, and everything could change by the end of the week.
Tension is palpable in the corridors of power. “Another week of working at strict minimum in our ministry… We will remain concerned about the future of the alliance,” admitted an exhausted purple minister. Another, this time from the Labour Party, confided, “We are hanging on to the decision of the MMM leader. It’s stressful; no one dares to anticipate anything.”
These confidences summarize the atmosphere: a tense government, hanging on a decision that depends solely on one man. For some, it hinges on Paul Bérenger’s “mood and whims.” For others, it depends on Navin Ramgoolam’s “responsiveness” to the commitments made during Thursday's tête-à-tête.
A Serene Friday, An Electric Saturday
On Thursday, however, everything seemed aligned. Navin Ramgoolam and Paul Bérenger emerged from their meeting with a “positive” tone. Friday’s cabinet meeting was described as “cool.” Smiles were exchanged, conversations flowed easily, and there were knowing glances. Many viewed it as a fresh start, a renewed willingness to work together in governance. But the respite was abruptly interrupted.
On Saturday, before the MMM central committee, Paul Bérenger changed his tune. Gone was the measured language. He opened the dossier, pointed out delays, listed unfulfilled commitments, and enumerated grievances. Then, he struck where no one expected: he set a new critical deadline for Friday, November 14. Between the lines was a message: patience is wearing thin.
According to a purple minister, the next indicator will drop on Thursday morning when Paul Bérenger receives the Cabinet Papers: “Paul said he’s eager to receive them, especially to see the content of the ‘minutes of proceedings’. As the English say, ‘the devil is in the details.’”
An Immediate Domino Effect
The shockwave was immediate. A Senior Minister from the MMM revealed that “the domino effect” set off soon after the central committee meeting. Phones were buzzing. Leaders of the Labour Party reached out to their purple counterparts in a worried scramble for explanations. Even Navin Ramgoolam allegedly contacted a Senior Minister from the MMM to understand, in detail, what was truly said—and to gauge the mood of the meeting. “It was a shockwave,” whispered an alliance member.
And now, everyone knows that the week ahead will not just be political. It will be decisive.
Two High-Tension Meetings
Indeed, the week begins with two significant meetings scheduled for this Monday, November 10.
The first key moment, at 3 PM, will be scrutinized like a political X-ray: the meeting of government parliamentarians. It’s not the agenda that matters, but the body language of the two leaders.
Navin Ramgoolam and Paul Bérenger will be side by side, but will they be together? Every sentence, every micro-expression, every posture will be examined as evidence of stability—or fracture. Averted gaze, raised eyebrow, too long a silence: everything can become a clue.
In a government in the midst of turbulence, every detail will become an indicator of cohesion or imminent rupture.
The Meeting of Truth
But the most explosive meeting, one that could reshape the internal balance of the MMM, will occur at 5 PM: the political bureau meeting. And there, no one is under any illusions: this will be the meeting of truth. On Saturday, before his central committee, Paul Bérenger issued a clear warning: he will settle accounts with purple leaders who have not shown solidarity with him.
The stark, raw, and accepted truth is this: a majority of the purple elected officials do not want the MMM to leave the government. They see the coalition as a space of influence, a political lever, an electoral asset. Leaving would be akin to jumping into the void. Returning to the opposition would mean relinquishing the only chance to influence state decisions.
A clash is therefore inevitable. A leader who advocates firmness and ideological coherence. Opposing him is a group of elected officials who view politics as an exercise in power dynamics, not as an act of faith.
Young Support, But Insufficient
Can the support from the youth wing be enough for Paul Bérenger? This is one of the most delicate—and revealing—questions of the current crisis. Even before the central committee meeting on Saturday, a movement of solidarity began within the young activists: a motion led by Joanna Bérenger called for strong support for the party leader in his endeavors.
However, according to our sources, this support is far from a homogeneous block. The meeting of the youth wing, rather than being consensual, was marked by intense exchanges between two influential members—a verbal confrontation that highlighted that even among young activists, “follow the leader” is not automatic. One pleaded for unwavering loyalty, while the other advocated for a more realistic posture given the risk of the alliance breaking apart. Voices clashed, arguments flew, but the motion ultimately passed.
And here lies the crux of the problem: the youth wing embodies idealism, energy... But it is the elected officials—deputies, ministers, junior ministers—who hold the levers of the governmental machine. And today, the majority of them refuse to break away.
The week opens in a fog: between exhausted patience and cold calculations, the alliance still holds... but a single gesture can tip the balance.