Madagascar: President Clings to Power and Dissolves the Assembly

Madagascar is currently facing a political crisis that has escalated into an institutional standoff. President Andry Rajoelina, who faces public dissent yet remains in power, dissolved the National Assembly on Tuesday ahead of a vote that could have led to his removal from office.

Weakened by military support for the protests that have engulfed the country and now in an undisclosed location, the president had previously dismissed any notion of resignation, instead calling for "respect for the Constitution" during his first public appearance since the upheaval.

Elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2023 for a five-year term in an election boycotted by the opposition, Rajoelina was under threat of a vote for "temporary incapacity" that required a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly.

"In accordance with Article 60 of the Constitution, the National Assembly is dissolved," stated a decree released on the presidency's Facebook page, which was confirmed as authentic by the president's office to AFP.

"This decision is necessary to restore order in our nation and strengthen democracy," he justified in a subsequent social media message.

Opposition deputies claimed to have gathered enough signatures to initiate a vote in an extraordinary session on Tuesday, citing a power vacuum, as the president reportedly left the country on Sunday aboard a French military plane.

- Thousands of Protesters -

Over the weekend, a military unit known as Capsat, which played a significant role in the 2009 coup that brought Rajoelina to power after a popular uprising, called on security forces to "refuse to fire" on protesters and joined them in the capital's center.

Most armed forces have since followed suit, renewing their chain of command, including the gendarmerie, which had previously been at the forefront of suppressing protests.

At least 22 people were killed at the start of the protests, with over a hundred injured, according to a United Nations report.

According to the Constitution, legislative elections must take place "at least sixty days and no more than ninety days after the dissolution" of the Assembly.

Uncertainty continues to grip this impoverished island in the Indian Ocean, where thousands of protesters gathered again in Antananarivo on Tuesday.

Since September 25, young people mobilized by the Gen Z collective have been joined by civil servants called to strike by various unions and protesters of all generations.

Anti-French placards have also proliferated, as noted by an AFP team in the Malagasy capital. "Get out France," "Get out Rajoelina and Macron" were among the slogans visible.

"I can't confirm anything today," French President Emmanuel Macron replied the day before when asked about the exfiltration of Rajoelina.

Madagascar, an island with a very impoverished population, has a long history of popular uprisings followed by the establishment of transitional military governments.

At least 80% of Madagascar's 32 million inhabitants live on less than 15,000 ariary per day (2.80 euros), which is below the World Bank's poverty threshold.