[War in the Middle East] Navin Ramgoolam: "The government is ready to respond quickly"
The Prime Minister dedicated a lengthy address in the National Assembly on Tuesday to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the Mauritian economy, detailing emergency measures being implemented on various fronts.
"From day one, it was clear that this war would create global turbulence with devastating economic repercussions, particularly for very vulnerable countries like Mauritius," stated the Prime Minister. For a small, open economy that is a net importer of energy and food, the shock is significant. The government has mobilized a Macroeconomic Coordination Committee—which includes the Prime Minister's office, the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Mauritius, Statistics Mauritius, and the Economic Development Board—to assess the conflict's impact under different scenarios.
The projections are concerning. The GDP growth, initially expected to be 3.4% for 2026, could drop to 3.2% if the conflict resolves quickly, and fall below 3% if hostilities prolong. Inflation, estimated at 4% at the beginning of the year, "could rise to 6%, depending on global oil prices and other commodities." The current account deficit could widen from 4.8% to about 6% of GDP. Coupled with a loss of 10 billion rupees related to the delay in ratifying the Chagos treaty, "the budget deficit could increase by an additional 2% of GDP."
Tourism is among the most exposed sectors. Tourist arrivals, projected at 1.45 million for 2026, "will depend on the severity and duration of the conflict," warned the Prime Minister. To mitigate the shock, Air Mauritius will open additional flights to Paris—one in March and three in April—representing over 2,300 extra seats. The Bank of Mauritius is also intervening in the foreign exchange market to contain pressures on the rupee.
On the consular front, 228 Mauritian nationals have contacted the Ministry of Foreign Affairs through the crisis cell set up in January 2026. "We had to act quickly, and we did," emphasized the Prime Minister. Travel alerts were issued on February 28 and March 9, 2026, advising against all non-essential travel to Iran and Gulf countries. In total, several dozen Mauritians have been repatriated: 20 pilgrims left Jeddah on March 2, and 39 others returned via Nairobi the following day. At the personal request of the Prime Minister, Emirates arranged three special flights on the Dubai-Mauritius route between March 5 and 7, allowing about 80% of the 72 Mauritians registered in Dubai to return. One national in Iran was evacuated via Turkey, and another in Israel was brought back with the help of Indian authorities via Jordan.
On the oil front, the price of Brent crude has surged from around $60 at the beginning of the year to nearly $100 currently. Despite this pressure, pump prices have remained stable in Mauritius. As of March 16, national reserves stood at approximately 13 days of gasoline stocks, 23 days of diesel, 21 days of Jet A1, and 17 days of marine fuel, with scheduled deliveries in March and April. To secure long-term supply, the Prime Minister announced an agreement with New Delhi for the direct purchase of petroleum products through the Indian Oil Corporation, "to eliminate unnecessary intermediary costs." He blamed the previous government for the breakdown of a similar agreement with the Mangalore Refinery before 2014, condemning it as "a unilateral and irresponsible action."
On the food front, international commodity prices have risen by 1 to 3% since the conflict began. The government maintains a price control system covering 30 products under maximum margin regulations and 13 essential commodities at fixed regulated prices. A price stabilization fund of 10 billion rupees ensures targeted subsidies for essential goods. The Ministry of Health has a buffer stock of medications covering at least six months.
"The current situation will weigh on our budget forecasts and further reduce our room for maneuver," acknowledged the Prime Minister, who nonetheless assured that the government is "ready to respond quickly and adjust its direction to preserve macroeconomic stability, support growth, and protect the purchasing power of Mauritians."
