Paul Bérenger at a Crossroads: The MMM Faces Internal Discontent and Potential Fracture
Next week could be pivotal for Paul Bérenger and the MMM. The purple leader announced at the Political Bureau (BP) his intention to resign as Deputy Prime Minister to serve as a simple backbencher in the government. However, unlike previous instances, no one seems to have rallied to persuade him to stay this time.
On Monday, during the BP meeting of the MMM, Paul Bérenger declared his intention to leave his post as Deputy Prime Minister to take on the role of a backbencher in the government. Unless there is a sudden change, this decision is expected to be finalized after the national holiday on March 12 and the departure of the Chief Guest, the President of Seychelles, possibly as soon as next week.
But more significant than the announcement itself is the reaction—or rather, the lack of reaction—that draws attention. According to gathered information, the BP meeting took place in complete silence. No one reportedly spoke up to try to convince the MMM leader to reconsider his decision. This silence contrasts sharply with previous episodes where efforts were made to prevent a break. This time, the atmosphere seems to have shifted.
Growing Discontent
Internally, several MMM leaders interpret this lack of response as a sign of deep-seated frustration. After several similar episodes, some no longer hide their fatigue in the face of a crisis that recurs repeatedly. The reasoning among some leaders is straightforward: why attempt to convince Paul Bérenger to stay when the same situation might recur in a few months?
This feeling of weariness is not confined to the MMM alone. On the Labour side as well, fatigue seems to be setting in. Notably, Navin Ramgoolam has not sought to play the mediator as he did in previous episodes. Nevertheless, in his national holiday speech, the Prime Minister sent a clear message to his partner: "Now is not the time for us to divide."
In other words, Paul Bérenger appears to find himself alone with his decision. He must either follow through or devise a political strategy to delay it again.
The Real Question: Who Will Follow Paul Bérenger?
If Paul Bérenger goes through with his plan, the immediate central question will be: how many purple parliamentarians will follow him to the backbenches of the government? This is where the crucial matter lies. Beyond the personal act of the MMM leader, it will be tested how effectively he can rally his party.
However, according to various sources, those who might have been tempted to support him are not all on the same page anymore. A senior leader who was reportedly poised to follow him has ultimately backtracked. Although he could theoretically become the opposition leader if the MMM leaves the government, he has sent messages to Labour leaders indicating he will not follow Paul Bérenger, especially since his regional group wants him to stay in government.
It seems that Paul Bérenger could count on the support of his daughter, Joanna, and part of the young wing of the MMM, which is very aligned with her. Additionally, two MPs—one elected in Port Louis and the other in a southern constituency—may also back him.
The Option of a Secret Vote to Decide
Faced with this impasse, some experienced leaders are considering calling for a secret vote within the Central Committee (CC) on a clear question: should the MMM remain in government or withdraw? This would be a significant political moment, as such a vote would officially clarify the position of party members.
If the CC votes to remain in government, Paul Bérenger's maneuverability would be considerably limited. He could appear isolated against an internal majority choosing to stay in the Executive.
Conversely, if the CC votes for withdrawal, the pressure would immediately shift. Purple parliamentarians wishing to remain in government would find themselves in a very uncomfortable position.
This time, the question is no longer simply whether Paul Bérenger will leave or not. The real question is who, around him, is still willing to follow him—and how far. Because behind a potential resignation of the Deputy Prime Minister, the entire equation of the MMM in power is abruptly at stake.
