Energy Crisis: Price Cascade on the Horizon
The rise in energy prices isn't just limited to fuel. Electricity, transportation, bread... a cascade of price increases is looming, driven by a global crisis whose initial effects are already being felt in Mauritius. On this day of crucial decisions from the Council of Ministers, the country holds its breath in the face of inflation that could accelerate.
Despite the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, a new Israeli strike has reignited tensions in the region. As a result, the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world's oil passes, has been closed once again. This situation arises even as the price per barrel showed signs of stabilization on Wednesday, April 8.
Currently, the average electricity tariff in Mauritius ranges from Rs 3.16 to Rs 4.20 per kilowatt-hour, with a progressive system that varies bills based on consumption. In practical terms, an average household spends between Rs 1,500 and Rs 3,000 per month, depending on usage.
In this context, a 10 to 15% increase in tariffs would have a direct impact on household budgets. A bill of Rs 2,000 could rise to approximately Rs 2,200 with a 10% increase, and up to Rs 2,300 with a 15% increase. Similarly, a bill of Rs 3,000 might jump to Rs 3,300 or even Rs 3,450. While these amounts might seem manageable at first glance, their cumulative effect is likely to weigh more heavily on the purchasing power of households, particularly for the middle class and the most vulnerable families.
Amid this pressure on tariffs, the question of energy supply remains central. According to a source close to the matter, the proposed increase is not expected to apply uniformly. It would concern certain categories of consumers, while households registered on the social registry might receive support measures to mitigate the impact.
"The increase is inevitable, certainly, but it will be implemented in a targeted and proportionate manner. For now, we don't have all the details, but the Council of Ministers will have the final say," this source confides.
According to the latest estimates, the stock of heavy fuel oil is currently secured, with the next delivery expected between April 15 and 18, allowing electricity production to be maintained in the coming weeks. On the fuel side, a ship is also expected to arrive in Mauritius between April 17 and 18, while another shipment is scheduled for June, as indicated by the Minister of Commerce, Michael Sik Yuen.
While these arrivals provide some short-term relief, they do not dispel uncertainties. Negotiated in a context of high volatility, these shipments come at significantly higher costs than usual. Beyond these supplies, the entire energy model of the country is now being tested, caught between dependence on imports and a lack of sufficiently developed alternatives.
For energy expert Sunil Dowarkasing, the situation highlights the limitations of a model still largely dependent on fossil fuels. He believes Mauritius is paying the price today for a delay in the energy transition.
"This dependence directly exposes the country to external shocks and fluctuations in the global market. Without accelerating the shift to renewable sources, the country finds itself forced to endure cost increases that it cannot control," he explains.
For him, this crisis should serve as a wake-up call: without a clear strategy and swift decisions, Mauritius will remain vulnerable to each new geopolitical disruption.
