Fuel Prices: A Rise in Gasoline and Diesel Costs Ahead
Title: Fuel Prices: A Rise in Gasoline and Diesel Costs Ahead
Content: A new shipment is expected this Thursday. Strategic reserves are set to exceed 40 days.
We are heading towards another increase in diesel prices, less than a month after the last hike. Gasoline, which was spared during the last Petroleum Pricing Committee (PPC) meeting, is also expected to see a price increase unless the government intervenes.
Despite reassuring stock visibility, the financial pressure on the State Trading Corporation (STC) is becoming unbearable. On Thursday, April 16, two ships are expected at Port-Louis: the first will carry gasoline and diesel, while the second will deliver heavy fuel oil necessary for national electricity production. These shipments will raise strategic reserves to over 40 days of consumption, ensuring the country's immediate energy security.
However, this logistical comfort will not be enough to prevent price increases. STC projections are clear: an upward revision of diesel prices is "very likely," and gasoline, which was protected during the last adjustment, is expected to follow the same trend this time.
The mechanism designed to cushion oil price shocks is on the brink of collapse. During the PPC meeting on March 24, 2026, the fund dedicated to diesel already reported a massive deficit of Rs 2.3 billion. This deficit, caused by maintaining administratively set prices below actual import costs, has now deprived authorities of any leverage. The situation concerning gasoline is equally concerning. While the associated stabilization fund appeared to be under control at the end of March, recent data indicates it will go "into the red" by this Wednesday. The reason: a persistent gap between pump prices and the reality of an overheated global market.
The explanation for this sharp decline lies in international markets. In just one month, the geopolitical context has changed radically: at the end of February/beginning of March 2026, the price of Brent crude was fluctuating between $72 and $75, while by April 10, 2026, prices had soared to between $97 and $100 per barrel.
This rapid increase of 30% to 35% is a direct result of escalating conflict in the Middle East and threats to the Strait of Hormuz. For an economy like Mauritius, which is entirely dependent on hydrocarbon imports, the impact is direct.
As a reminder, on March 25, the price of diesel rose from Rs 58.95 to Rs 64.80 (a 10% increase), while gasoline remained unchanged at Rs 58.45. The next PPC meeting scheduled in the coming days is expected to be crucial. Commissioners will have to choose between the financial survival of stabilization funds and the preservation of household purchasing power, which is already weakened by the global situation.
