Shafick Osman, Geopolitical Expert and Political Observer: "A Sign of the End of a Cycle for the MMM"

Shafick Osman, a geopolitical expert, expresses that the crisis shaking the MMM (Mouvement Militant Mauricien) is not surprising and sees it as a logical outcome. He notes the stark opposition between Paul Bérenger, who has resigned as Deputy Prime Minister, and the majority of his party, marking the "end of a cycle". With potential resignations, internal restructuring, and government weakening on the horizon, this period could represent one of the most significant political events in recent decades. Osman believes Bérenger's departure would severely weaken the government.

Are you surprised by what happened this week at the MMM?
Not really! Paul Bérenger has been talking about dissatisfaction and departures for a while now. However, what's different this time is that most members of the central committee and the National Assembly oppose the MMM leaving the government, which contradicts the historical leader's direction.

What comes next after Paul Bérenger's announcement of resignation from his Deputy PM position on Friday?
We will know more on Monday afternoon after the purple political bureau meeting. If Bérenger resigns as party leader, it will be a historically significant act, potentially the most important political move in recent years. The MMM led by Bérenger has shaped the country's political landscape for over 50 years. If he decides to leave the MMM, it would be monumental as no major party leader in Mauritius has resigned while in the minority. If he were to create a new party, it would also be unprecedented.

He has also indicated that he will announce his decision regarding his presence in the MMM and Parliament in the coming days?
Yes, as I mentioned, if he leaves the MMM, it could be the most significant political act in recent decades. If he remains a member but steps down from leadership, it will also carry significant political weight. We would then have to consider who would take over, but I don't foresee that scenario happening.

Could we have believed that Paul Bérenger would face disagreement from the majority of MMM parliamentarians, including his most loyal supporters Rajesh Bhagwan and Reza Uteem, regarding leaving the government?
It's very surprising to see Rajesh Bhagwan say he won't follow Bérenger this time! I'm also surprised by Deven Nagalingum's position and Fawzi Allymun's stance. It's a sign of the end of a cycle at the MMM. The MMM of tomorrow will not resemble the MMM we have known since the 1980s or 90s, excluding the 70s.

Is the MMM on the brink of an irreversible internal fracture today?
The MMM has experienced fractures in the past: 1973 (with the departure of early militants like Dev Virahsawmy), 1983 (with Anerood Jugnauth leaving to form MSM), 1993 (with Prem Nababsing and Jean Claude de l'Estrac forming RMM), and in 2014 with Ivan Collendavelloo's departure to establish ML. This isn't new for the MMM, and I forgot to mention the departure of the late Ram Seegobin and Lindsey Collen in 1981 to form Lalit de Klas. What might fundamentally change this time is the potential departure of Paul Bérenger or his relinquishment of party leadership, which is significant.

What exit strategy does Paul Bérenger have today?
If I were Paul Bérenger, I would consider stepping back and letting the MMM remain in government with new leadership. It's time for him to withdraw or adopt a non-partisan stance to continue observing local politics. However, in Mauritius, political leaders rarely relinquish their party leadership...

Can we imagine the MMM without him or him without the MMM?
An existential question! Over the decades, members have realized it's possible, but the Bérengistes seem to be in a severe minority these days. A MMM without Paul Bérenger or without both Bérenger brothers would need to take a different direction. Personally, I would like to see Paul Bérenger create another party to see what he would do with it. At the end of his life, Sir Gaëtan Duval also had to relinquish leadership of the PMSD to create the Gaëtan Duval Party (PGD)...

He highlighted several reasons that make staying impossible: corruption (the gang of five), appointments, and economic management, among others. Are these valid reasons?
I believe he has his reasons, and no one can question them because the people, especially those who campaigned for Change and voted for the Change Alliance, have been very disappointed with the performance and actions of Dr. Navin Ramgoolam's fourth term. I've been vocal since 2024 that the Navin-Paul alliance won't work and that there won't be Change, and today's history proves me right!

Can the central committee or the assembly of delegates really resolve this crisis without leaving scars?
No, that's not possible. A crisis of this magnitude inevitably leaves significant scars!

Are we witnessing a generational crisis within the MMM?
I mentioned this on a private radio station. There is a young trend with Joanna Bérenger, Nabil Moolna, Daniella Bastien, etc., that struggles to work with the elders, but the elders are more numerous. The MMM has failed to renew itself in the last 20 or 30 years, and now it is paying the price!

Is remaining in government a strategic or opportunistic choice?
That depends on the view and perspective, but when I hear Rajesh Bhagwan speak these days, I think those who choose to stay in government must realize it's so difficult for the MMM to come to power that it's better to stay... even with Navin Ramgoolam as the government leader! Others did the same in 1993 when they remained with SAJ...

Will this crisis redefine leadership within the MMM?
If Paul Bérenger steps down as leader, definitely yes. The new leader will redraw the new MMM, but that doesn't mean the MMM will survive beyond 2029; it's a bit early to talk about the next legislative elections...

Would Paul Bérenger's departure from government weaken the government?
Yes, because the Change government was primarily Navin Ramgoolam and Paul Bérenger. With Bérenger's departure, Navin Ramgoolam will be practically alone at the helm, and there will be no more counterbalance within the government. This could be both a good and a very bad thing...

Are political alliances in Mauritius now purely tactical?
Unfortunately, yes! Parties no longer ally for shared ideas and projects but to have a more realistic chance of coming to power! It's very sad, but it's the current climate as we're in a very opportunistic era. Paul Bérenger ended up saying on Friday that he and Navin formed an alliance to defeat the MSM!

Does this crisis benefit other opposition parties, specifically MSM and PMSD?
The MSM will benefit for sure, but indirectly. The orange discourse will likely focus on Paul Bérenger's disappointments and grievances, but with the recent elections at the Mauritius Sanathan Dharma Temples Federation (MSDTF), we've seen that the MSM maintains strong support within the Hindu community. As for the PMSD, it will be challenging for them to enter the government given the current scenario, and there will be disappointed members from the Labour Party as well since few ministerial positions will be available...

Are political parties still structured around ideologies or just electoral strategies?
No, the time of ideologies is over, at least among traditional parties, and has been for quite some time. The main political parties only have one thing in mind: how to come to power at almost any cost. It's unfortunate. This is not just the case in Mauritius but everywhere in the world.

Is the role of the leader too central in Mauritian parties?
There is a significant problem in political parties in Mauritius: there is no renewal of leaders! They cling on in times of victory as well as defeat! Dr. Navin Ramgoolam himself has been the leader of his party for 36 years, and he is not ready to pass the baton!

Are we witnessing a deepening crisis of trust between citizens and the political class?
We've started to see this over the past decade, and I believe it will intensify with younger generations who are much less politicized than their elders. We will see what happens in 2029, and even 2034.